Scientists and medical experts have long recognized the link between patterns in the climate and outbreaks of disease. With the development of technology and data analysis methods in recent years, scientists have been able to better understand how climatic indicators can be used to forecast and control epidemics. The connection between anomalous sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and dengue epidemics around the world is one such field of research.
Particularly for vector-borne illnesses like dengue, climate variables like temperature and precipitation have proven essential in early warning systems for predicting disease patterns. El Niño-related increased sea surface temperatures have the potential to drastically affect mosquito hatching and, in turn, the spread of diseases like dengue.
Even though climate indicators are used to anticipate disease, there are still areas of uncertainty regarding the long-range climate variables that affect dengue epidemics globally. Research aiming to close the gap between dengue epidemics worldwide and anomalous sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean is based on this gap.
Data on annual dengue cases recorded in 46 countries in Southeast Asia and America were gathered by the study team between 1990 and 2019. In addition, analysis was done on monthly case data from 24 of these nations between 2014 and 2019. The researchers investigated the relationships between seasonal and annual dengue epidemics and climatic patterns using sophisticated modeling tools.
The study found a strong link between global dengue epidemics and anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean’s sea surface temperatures. These results highlight how sea surface temperatures can be used as a climatic indicator to anticipate and prepare for dengue epidemics.
Implications for Disease Forecasting and Management: Forecasting and management techniques for diseases could undergo a radical change if it is known how climatic indicators, such as sea surface temperatures, affect the spread of diseases. Health authorities might better anticipate and manage dengue epidemics, especially in endemic areas, by integrating these insights into early warning systems.
A major advancement in the forecasting of diseases influenced by climate change has been made by the research on anomalous sea surface temperatures and dengue epidemics worldwide. The knowledge gathered from this research opens the door to more potent methods of stopping and managing dengue outbreaks worldwide.
SOURCE:
TIMES OF INDIA
